From climate change predictions to actions – conserving vulnerable animal groups in hotspots at a regional scale

Current climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Species unable to adapt or move will face local or global extinction and this is more likely to happen to species with narrow climatic and habitat requirements and limited dispersal abilities, such as amphibians and reptiles. Biodiversity losses are likely to be greatest in global biodiversity hotspots where climate change is fast, such as the Iberian Peninsula. Here we assess the impact of climate change on 37 endemic and nearly endemic herptiles of the Iberian Peninsula by predicting species distributions for three different times into the future (2020, 2050 and 2080) using an ensemble of bioclimatic models and different combinations of species dispersal ability, emission levels and global circulation models. Our results show that species with Atlantic affinities that occur mainly in the North‐western Iberian Peninsula have severely reduced future distributions. Up to 13 species may lose their entire potential distribution by 2080. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that the most critical period for the majority of these species will be the next decade. While there is considerable variability between the scenarios, we believe that our results provide a robust relative evaluation of climate change impacts among different species. Future evaluation of the vulnerability of individual species to climate change should account for their adaptive capacity to climate change, including factors such as physiological climate tolerance, geographical range size, local abundance, life cycle, behavioural and phenological adaptability, evolutionary potential and dispersal ability.     

采煤矿区的生态脆弱性——以内蒙古锡林郭勒草原胜利煤田为例

以锡林郭勒草原胜利煤田为典型研究区,构建了由生态敏感性、自然与社会压力及生态恢复力3方面16个因子组成的生态脆弱性评估指标体系,基于专家打分法和层次分析法建立了生态脆弱性模型,借助遥感及地理信息工具完成了对区域生态脆弱性指数的计算,分析了土地利用与生态脆弱性的关系,并通过空间自相关分析对计算结果进行了全局及局部聚类检验.结果表明： 研究区脆弱性总体属于中等偏高水平;胜利煤田4个露天矿的开采导致采区脆弱性显著增加,由于矿井疏干水和人为活动的影响,矿区周边300～2000 m范围都演变为生态高脆弱性区;随着矿区的进一步开发,整个煤田都将转变为中度和重度脆弱区,而煤炭资源开采是导致区域脆弱性提高的主要因素.全区及局部聚类结果显示,该区域脆弱性空间分布有很好的聚类特征.降低矿区人口密度、控制草地载畜水平、控制建设用地和耕地比率是解决矿区社会经济压力的最佳途径,增加投入、提高植被恢复系数是改变区域生态脆弱性的根本措施.
     

A Talent for Life: Reflections on Human Vulnerability and Resilience

This article explores the limitations of the dominant psychological trauma model. Drawing on the experiences and the aftermaths of chronic ‘states of emergency ‘ among shantytown families in rural Northeast Brazil, among hunted street kids in urban Brazil, and among revolutionaries and warriors of different political stripes following the anti-apartheid struggle in South Africa, I identify several features of human resilience, the sources of strength, toughness, hardiness, and relative immunity from personal and psychological collapse that we have come to associate with exposure to a variety of human calamities. We need to rethink our notions of trauma, violence and its sequalae.     

Composite Subsidence Vulnerability Assessment Based on an Index Model and Index Decomposition Method

The threat of damage to buildings and other infrastructures resulting from land subsidence associated with groundwater pumping in urbanized areas is an ongoing problem requiring assessment. An important goal of subsidence vulnerability assessment is to construct a composite subsidence vulnerability index (SVI) that is represented by a set of indicators that focuses on four different thematic factors: physical, social, economic, and environmental vulnerability. These indicators are evaluated on the basis of indicator selection principles and then weighted by their contribution rate to the overall index. The weights reflect different measures assigned to the township-specific conditions. A complete and composite subsidence vulnerability assessment is developed in which future vulnerability management decision-making processes can be readily made. The vulnerability assessment includes not only the construction of the SVI, which involves selecting, assigning value to, weighting, and aggregating the vulnerability indicators, but also the presentation of the SVI decomposition. Research results demonstrate that a composite subsidence vulnerability assessment method can be made by first constructing and then decomposition-presenting the overall SVI. This allows for the relative comparison of subsidence vulnerability and the identification of the main vulnerable indicators; thus providing subsidence risk, which represents an important step toward vulnerability management of water resources.     

A multi-etiology model of systemic degeneration in schizophrenia

We discuss the possibility of multiple underlying etiologies of the condition currently labeled as schizophrenia. We support this hypothesis with a theoretical model of the prefrontal-limbic system.We show how the dynamical behavior of this model depends on an entire set of physiological parameters, representing synaptic strengths, vulnerability to stress-induced cortisol, dopamine regulation and rates of autoantibody production. Malfunction of such different parameters produces similar outward dysregulation of the system, which may readily lead to diagnostic difficulties for a clinician.Techniques that provide a spectrum/profile of neural and steroid functions may be helpful in clarifying these diagnostic dilemmas.     

基于遥感总初级生产力的天山-塔里木绿洲地区生态系统脆弱性研究

生态系统的脆弱性是全球气候变化与可持续发展研究的核心问题，测定与评价脆弱性对认识生态系统的结构与功能至关重要。天山-塔里木绿洲地区包含着山地、荒漠和绿洲等多种类型的生态系统，存在着多个不同生态类型的交界过渡区。为定量评价该地区生态脆弱性，以植被总初级生产力这一生态系统重要的功能性指标为基础，对该地区生态系统脆弱性进行了计算和分级（不脆弱、轻度脆弱、中度脆弱、重度脆弱和极度脆弱），并对研究区生态系统脆弱性的空间分布特征及其与环境因子的关系进行了分析与讨论。结果表明：（1）研究区生态系统脆弱性总体上表现出明显的空间分化格局，以中度和重度脆弱为主，极度脆弱的地区主要分布在南部的塔里木绿洲。（2）生态系统脆弱等级大体上随着区域内多年平均温度的升高而升高。受地表水灌溉的影响，生态系统脆弱性与降水量间并无明显趋势性规律。（3）研究区的生态系统脆弱等级随着区域内的平均海拔以及平均坡度的升高都呈现下降的趋势。受自然条件恶劣、过度放牧以及农田过度开垦的影响，目前该地区总体呈现脆弱性严重的状态。研究表明该地区应积极开展生态治理工作，合理规划生态功能关键区，保护好现有草原和湿地等易开垦地区，划定绿洲开发范围的"红线"，限制农田的开垦，协调好塔里木河流域的水资源分配。研究为使用卫星遥感数据研究生态系统脆弱性提供了方法上的参考，为可持续发展和生态治理提供了科学依据。     

Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest‐weed‐disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades.